Why astrology is a pile of stupidity.

There is something in science known as controlled experiment. To know whether something has an effect or not scientists take two sets persons (or bacteria or plants or animals) and subject them to the factor being studied. Suppose the effect of heat is being studied then we have to take two sets of persons and bring a hot iron close to their palms (say 3 cms). For each set we bring the palms close to the iron but for one set (set A) the iron is hot (switched on) while for the other (set B) it is not. Let us say that there are 10 persons in each of our sets. People in set A will want to take their palms away from the iron within a few seconds. People in set B will also want to take their palms away from the iron (because it is boring to hold it there) but they will take longer to want to do so. We measure these times and then compare the times between set A and set B. After applying some statistical procedures to come to the conclusion that the times are different between the two sets. Which then leads us to the conclusion that heat does have an effect on how long a person will want to keep their palm within 3 cms of an iron. Crudely, we have demonstrated that heat does affect human beings.

In the above experiment, set A is referred to as the treatment set while set B is referred to as the control set. Supposing you are not allowed to use a control set. In other words you are not allowed to used an unheated iron on one set. What conclusion can you reach about the effect of heat on human beings. You will still get a response, people will remove their hands from near the iron. But can you be sure that it is because of the heat? No.

My problem with astrology is that their is no control in this racket. Someone wins the lottery and an astrologer claims that it is because they were born under a particular condition of the constellations, implying that they would not have won the lottery had they been born in a different condition of constellations. We can never test this, can we? We cannot go back in time and make this person be born under a different condition of constellations and then travel back to the present to see whether they buy a lottery ticket and win. So you see, there is no control. So anybody can make any claim of astrological influence and the claim cannot be verified by any means.

The other things which astrologers do is predict the future. This one is relatively easy to test but astrologers make predictions in ways which make it difficult to test their correctness. Mostly they do not make any concrete predictions. Fuzzy predictions are difficult to test for correctness.

So how can we test how correct the predictions made by an astrologer are? Let us say we can find an astrologer willing to make testable predictions. This is not really possible because none of them really do. But for the sake of convenience let us say we can find one. Now let us go to a T junction on the road and ask this astrologer to make predictions whether cars approaching it will turn left or right while the cars are still at least 200 yards away from the junction. The astrologer should not be familiar with the junction. Now we count how many times the prediction is correct and how many times wrong. What will we find.

• Not all predictions will be correct.
• Not all predictions will be wrong.
• Some percentage of predictions will be correct.

Now bring someone who does not claim to able to make predictions and make him predict which way cars are going to turn. What will we find.

• Not all predictions will be correct.
• Not all predictions will be wrong.
• Some percentage of predictions will be correct.

The percentage of correct predictions made by the non-astrologer will not exactly be the same as that of the astrologer. But they will probably not be too different. There are statistical tests which will let us determine whether the difference in the percentage of correct predictions is enough to support the idea that the astrologer has a power of prediction which is different from that of the non-astrologer.

Whether you are an astrologer or not, there are ways of improving your percentage of correct predictions. It is by having what statisticians call a model. Supposing you have opportunity to study this T junction beforehand. You could count what percentage of cars turn left. Let us say it is 70%, while 30% turn right. Now when you are making predictions you could always say that the car will turn left. And you will be right 70% of the time. Better still, you could mix 7 left turns with 3 right turns for every 10 predictions you make. Given a large enough number of predictions you will be right more than 70% of the time. See anybody can make predictions if less than 100% certainty is acceptable! So prior observations can lead to a model which can lead to better predictions. Models vary. Some are better than others. In general, better models will give predictions of higher accuracy. Coming back to the T junction. Supposing that we do not make any prior observations on the T junction but we know that the left turns leads to a major road while the right turn leads only to a small village. Now without making any prior observations we can still arrive at a model with just this bit of information. Most cars will turn left to take the main road. We could guess any thing, 60%, 70%, 90% to use in our model. As long as we estimate that more than 50% cars will turn left our model will have improved predictability.

At least some astrologers use prior information to make predictions although they deny doing so. They claim to rely on astrological calculations only. There is a lot one can guess from body language, expression, speech etc., and all these can be used to draw general conclusions even about someone you are meeting for the first time. If someone has come to you for astrological consultation then they are already predisposed to believing you. So all the astrologer has to do is to make some intelligent guesses and some generalized predictions based on those guesses. Incidentally, this is exactly what con men do. They make some intelligent guesses about you, predict your behaviour based on those guesses and, then manipulate the circumstances to make you do something silly which will enable them to pull off the con.

Actually friends can do the same. Friends who know you quite well can easily predict that you will not do well as a writer but will do well as a teacher. Their model is their knowledge of you. Their knowledge of you is better than that of any astrologer. So get some good and honest friends. They are much better than astrologers and a lot more fun.

Nobody knows yourself better than you. Be your own friend. More importantly, don't be your enemy. Be honest with yourself. Widen your horizons but do not move too quickly and too far from your core competence. Know your fortes, develop them and use them with confidence. Just like your friends help you know yourself, help them know themselves. Just like you should never be dishonest with yourself, never be dishonest with friends (or anybody else for that matter).

Hopefully I have convinced you that astrological predictions are not purely astrological and that you do not need them to live a happy and fulfilling life.